Tic-Tac-Obama

I think I’ve started to develop a (Good? Bad?) habit of seeing politics in terms of childhood games.  Try this one on for size: Obama may have just pulled a classic trap move.  It works in tic-tac-toe, and just as well for such greats as Connect 4, and, if you’re snooty, that whole chess thing.  It’s simple – the goal in any of these games is to put the other player in a position where they only have two possible moves, and each one means they lose (see the board up top for an example – no matter where O goes, X will win  correction: no matter where X goes O will win.  I got some crap from a certain director type who thought the O should represent Obama.  Fair Enough – I changed the picture. asshole.)

Here’s how I think it plays out in the campaign:  Before the VP picks, Obama was running even in the popular vote, but kicking McCain’s ass in the electoral college (BTW this was a game he played very well in the primaries to beat Hillary). He was running even or close in states like Montana, Nevada, Alaska, and North Carolina – states that he has no business winning in the general election. This fucked with McCain’s strategy – he had the choice of moving towards independents in traditional battleground states like Florida and Pennsylvania, or shoring up the base to try to hold onto Colorado and North Carolina. He couldn’t do both… thus the trap situation.

After the Jump – McCain’s attempt to beat the trap, and why it will fail…

From everything I’ve heard out of the campaign, McCain wanted to go with Leiberman or PA governor Tom Ridge, and align with independent, pro-choice voters.  Then, at the last minute, he was convinced by his campaign staff that the only option was a Christian Fundamentalist who would solidify the backbone of the party… Thus we end up with a quick phone call to Palin and presto! She’s hired without a decent vetting process.

Now Obama has shifted back into fighting in the traditional battleground states, but he’s going to start getting some bounce from the working class people who are uncomfortable with a VP who doesn’t believe in evolution or global warming and thinks her foreign policy credentials are bolstered by the fact that you can see Russia from Alaska.

See – Schmidt and the rest of McCain’s Rove crew were hoping for a two-in-one move that would spring Obama’s trap. They thought they could steal Hillary voters in Appalachia while also capturing the religious wingnuts out west.  Unfortunately for them, those characteristics are just too rare – the only person they found was woefully under qualified.

While the national numbers broke hard in McCains direction after the Palin pick, the electoral numbers did not shift as much.  In other words – a lot more people in states like Alabama and Oklahoma were supporting McCain, but not too many more in the states that Obama has a decent shot in.  McCain’s national polling numbers went up, but his chances of winning didn’t increase accordingly.  So he may have already hit his high water mark, and if his numbers begin to drop again, they’ll probably drop at the margins in states with the most independents – exactly what Obama is hoping for.  

So buck up Democrats (and be afraid republicans, I hope) It’s not as bad as it looked when Palin was first chosen – she now has the worst favorable to unfavorable rating of any candidate:  she’s at +7, while McCain is +9, Biden is +17, and Obama is +18 (click here for more info on those numbers).  Plus Obama is moving back up in the polls, and it looks like the shift we saw over the last few weeks was actually just a combo Palin-Convention bounce, and may not be indicative of a larger McCain victory.  I certainly hope so…

Coming over the weekend – part two of the Rise of American Fundamentalism